“Fortunately, this force was neutralised with the resumption of SRD grant payments and a recovery in employment, particularly in the hospitality sector. This bolstered spending on essentials, such as food and beverages, while sales of clothing also continued at a heady pace.”
“Although the pace of growth in sales volumes of consumer and non-consumer goods moderated from earlier record highs, it nevertheless remained quite strong,” Le Roux says.“While the re-start of production at the Toyota plant in KwaZulu-Natal brought about some relief, the combination of a constant global shortage of computer chips delaying new vehicle manufacturing and erratic deliveries of imports continued to prevent dealers from fully satisfying increased demand.
“While the full extent of this deterioration is hard to square with somewhat livelier building activity particularly in the non-residential sector, it emphasises the impact of several confidence-sapping factors, such as ongoing delays in the authorisation of building plans, the postponement of tenders, persistent shortages of certain materials, load shedding and the lack of working capital, due to, among other things, continued late payments by the public sector,” Le Roux says.
Le Roux says while the third quarter drop in the index to below 40 is disappointing, it is unlikely that this points to another outright contraction in real GDP because confidence among retailers and wholesalers remains well above long-term averages, which emphasises the surprising resilience of consumer spending at a time when falling inflation in due course should ease the pressure on disposable income.
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