Not for the first time, inflation numbers caught the market by surprise. The bad news was the S&P 500 SPX saw the largest one-day decline in two years, slumping 4.2%. The good news if you’re checking your 401, you’re only back to last week’s levels, and futures are holding up in the early hours of Wednesday.
One month of data is just one month of data, and there are still believers that the Fed in the not too distant future will stop the rate-hike campaign. If you use the old rule of thumb that the Fed has to hike interest rates above the core rate of inflation — and remember, that particular saw is on the Fed’s own website! — then the market is still vastly underestimating how high rates will have to go. Even after Tuesday’s inflation surprise, fed fund futures imply a terminal rate around 4.25%.
After all, the most recent data on U.S. activity actually has been strengthening. “With inflation and labor market reports still pointing clearly to overheating, the Fed will have no excuse to hint at pausing, never mind at future easing,” says Kaletsky. The market It’s not looking bad, so far. U.S. stock futures ES00 NQ00 are advancing. The dollar DXY edged lower, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y edged up to 3.43%.
Starbucks SBUX unveiled three-year guidance, anticipating it will grow adjusted earnings between 15% and 20% on comparable-store sales growth between 7% and 9%. Starbucks previously forecast 4% to 5% comp sales growth. It said it will return $20 billion to shareholders over the next three years through stock buybacks and dividends.
The market has not melted down… yet.
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