Barron’s, which like MarketWatch is owned by Dow Jones & Co., provoked a minor stir on financial Twitter earlier this week when it published an article declaring that U.S. stocks have likely hit their lows for the cycle, even if more turbulence could follow in the months ahead.
The last six weeks have been kind to U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 SPX, -0.05% has been trading above its 200-day moving average for a couple of weeks. And as the large-cap index has surmounted the 4,000 level, the CBOE Volatility Gauge VIX, +0.79%, known as the “Vix” or Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” has fallen to around 20, one of its lowest levels of the year, which suggests that options traders expect volatility to be subdued over the coming month.
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who has become one of Wall Street’s most closely followed analysts after anticipating this year’s bruising selloff, said earlier this week that he expects the S&P 500 will bottom around 3,000 during the first quarter of next year, resulting in a “terrific” buying opportunity.
History suggests that stocks won’t bottom until the Fed cuts rates One notable chart produced by analysts at Bank of America has made the rounds several times this year. It shows how over the past 70 years, U.S. stocks have tended not to bottom until after the Fed has cut interest-rates. Higher interest rates for longer would be particularly bad news for growth stocks and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.36%, which outperformed during the era of rock-bottom interest rates, market strategists say.
Bond market is still telegraphing a recession ahead Hopes that the U.S. economy might avoid a punishing recession have certainly helped to bolster stocks, market analysts said, but in the bond market, an increasingly inverted Treasury yield curve is sending the exact opposite message.
Bottom is in.
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