BMO's Brian Belski sees modest stock-market gains in 2023 on hopes of a tame recession

Brian Belski, chief investment strategist at BMO Capital Markets, sees small gains for stocks next year, citing a belief that the U.S. will see only a mild recession and that the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle will end soon. BMO set its S & P 500 base case target for 2023 at 4,300, a little more than 5% above Wednesday's close of 4,080.11. Belski assumes the U.S. suffers a modest economic downturn and that the Fed ends its hiking cycle by May, at the latest.

Belski believes that the central bank winding down its tightening policy will prove a tailwind for stocks. "The months leading up to the conclusion of the previous four tightening cycles have been met with muted stock market returns, on average, but the months following the end of such cycles tend to see fairly strong gains," he said. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday he sees the central bank in position to reduce the size of rate hikes as soon as this month.

Will the economy improve from the middle of next year?

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