Phoenix area's housing market took a drastic turn in 2022. What's ahead in 2023?

Metro Phoenix’s red-hot housing market abruptly started slowing in the summer and in most neighborhoods quickly shifted toward buyers for the first time in years.

Based on pending sales, metro Phoenix’s median home price is expected to have dropped to $419,000 in November, after hitting a record $475,000 in May.Michelle Lange has dropped the price on her remodeled Fountain Hills house by $55,000 since putting it on the market in September. “I think more sellers have wrapped their mind around the market shifting, but houses now have to be priced right and in great condition like Michelle's house is,” she said.Metro Phoenix housing shortage looms for adults with autism, other neurodiversities

Nicholas Blincoe had been renting since he graduated from college six years ago and wasn’t interested in getting into bidding wars to buy. In July, when the market started to slow, he began looking in the Biltmore area with a budget of $500,000. But 30 ZIPs saw price drops of more than 10% during July, August and September compared with the three months prior.“Sellers can’t price Phoenix-area homes like they did in January and expect 14 offers,” said Oleg Bortman, CEO and managing agent of The Brokery. “The market is better for buyers now but still good for sellers.”The number of home sales also fell in most metro Phoenix areas.

Third-quarter sales fell by more than 7,000 year-over-year. There were about 23,700 sales in the same quarter of 2021. She said the median concession sellers were giving to buyers was $7,400 in October but climbed to $9,000 in November.During the bidding wars of 2021 and early 2022, Naisa Young couldn’t imagine being able to afford the 941-square-foot Mesa condo she is scheduled to close on in December.

Young and Blincoe were both able to get a 2-1 buydown on their mortgage rates. The loan program drops the interest rate 2% on the first year of a home loan and then 1% the second year.But housing market watchers say if interest rates dip back down and home prices climb slowly but steadily, then homeowners with 2-1 buydowns should be able to refinance to a lower rate in a few years. So they are marrying the house and dating the interest rate.

Other concessions more metro Phoenix buyers can now potentially get from sellers include discounted prices and repairs.

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