Recommended allocations to stocks have dropped to levels that historically have sent a contrarian, bullish signal to the U.S. stock market, according to BofA Global Research.
While the sell-side indicator remains in “neutral” territory, it ended 2022 just 1.5 percentage points from a more predictive “buy” signal — “the closest it has been to ‘buy’ since 2017,” BofA equity and quantitative strategists said in the note. The S&P 500 plunged 19.4% in 2022, its worst year since 2008 as it snapped a three-year win streak, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Traditionally, the “normal” equity allocation for a balanced fund is 60-65%, according to the BofA report, which highlighted that the 2008 financial crisis pushed the sell-side indicator “below that band for the first time since 2000.”
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