Commercial real estate lenders have cast a wary eye on the Bay Area, where tech layoffs and historic amounts of vacant office space are compounding concerns about rising interest rates and fears of a recession.
The report is significant because lender sentiment about regional markets influences where capital for new development projects as well as the recapitalization and refinancing of existing properties flows. Per the report, entitled 2023 U.S. Lender Intentions Survey, lenders' top three concerns were rising interest rates, fear of a recession and uncertainty about property valuations. Other worries include declining fundamentals; inflation; the shift in credit availability and loan terms; a mismatch in buyer and seller expectations; other central bank policy and the impact of currency fluctuations.
The Bay Area's unsavory ranking is unlikely to come as a surprise to industry stakeholders. The region has been particularly challenged by the rising popularity of remote work, and more recently by widening tech layoffs — including at Salesforce, the city of San Francisco's biggest employer — though job growth has remained positive and unemployment rates low. CBRE reported this month that office vacancy in San Francisco is nearing 28% and expected to grow in the first half of the year.
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