Stock-market bulls who see recession as off the table and await the next leg of the rally are setting themselves up for disappointment as the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening is “still ahead of us,” according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“We have looked for an equity rebound since Q4 of last year, driven by stalling yields, China reopening and our view that natural-gas prices would fall,” said the strategists. “While we believe that Q1 can initially stay robust, we do not expect that there will be a fundamental confirmation for the next leg higher, and see rally fading as we move through this quarter, with Q1 possibly marking the high for the year.
Fed funds futures traders were pricing in a 76% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by another quarter-of-a percentage-point to between 4.75% to 5% on March 22, and a 24% chance of a bigger half-point move, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders have only recently come around to the Fed’s expectation for the fed-funds rate to peak just above 5%.U.S. stock indexes traded sharply lower on Tuesday as investors returned from the long holiday weekend.
Money supply Money supply keeps moving lower in both the U.S. and Europe, according to JPMorgan strategists.
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