The final session of Wall Street’s holiday-shortened trading week will see the S&P 500 open pretty much smack in the middle of the 3,800 to 4,200 range it’s inhabited for more than three months. Dips keep getting bought and rips sold.
However that rebound is based on a narrative of incompatible outcomes, which ultimately may be bad news for risk assets, warns Blackrock. “Now bond markets are waking up to the risk the Fed hikes rates higher and holds them there for longer,” says BlackRock. Because the asset manager reckons this is not a typical economic cycle, it thinks “a new investment playbook is needed.”
“That is in contrast to major economies that have yet to feel the full impact of central bank rate hikes – and yet still have a too-rosy earnings outlook, in our view. Plus, the risk is growing that DM central banks press ahead with more rate hikes.” There’s quite a lot of economic data and Fedspeak for traders to consider on Friday. Arguably of most importance is the personal consumption expenditure price index for January, due at 8:30 a.m. The PCE index is a favored inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve.
6 month T Bill and 1 year also!
its not whether they are right or wrong now. its whether they are right or wrong tomorrow. of course lets buy bonds and sell stocks today and buy stocks and sell bonds tomorrow and by the end of the year made a 2% return before commissions to blackrock and -80% after.
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