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“2023=credit crunch=recession,” wrote the team of BofA Global Research strategist Michael Hartnett in their signature shorthand. “Banking crises are followed by tighter lending standards and lower risk appetite.”, the flow of bank credit to the private sector in major developed markets had turned negative, says Capital Economics.
“It stands to reason that the recent banking sector jitters will prompt a more aggressive tightening of credit conditions ahead.”a record US$152.85 billion from the United States Federal Reserve’s discount window, a traditional liquidity backstop, in the week after SVB’s collapse, topping the high reached during the 2008 financial crisis. BofA’s chart below shows how peaks in usage of this discount window relate to peaks in the percentage of banks tightening lending standards for small business.
While Canadian banks are at far less risk, they could be forced to tighten credit conditions as well if recent events lead to a U.S. credit crunch, said Capital. One concern is that Canadian banks have increased their exposure to the U.S. since the Great Financial Crisis, said Capital economist Stephen Brown.
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