Stage 8 load shedding means consumers will be without electricity for half the time - or 16 hours in a 32-hour cycle.With the winter season upon us, our power system will be even more constrained. Weather forecasters are anticipating a much colder winter season. There are clear patterns of weather change in our country. And these challenges will result in high electricity demand.
In the second scenario, breakdowns of 16 500MW are assumed, which would result in Stage 6 load shedding every day from May to the end of August In the third scenario, breakdowns of 18 000MW are assumed. This would require Stage 7 load shedding for every day of May and June and Stage 8 for every day of July and August.While Eskom believes it has put interventions in place to reduce breakdowns, this has not yet been reflected in the numbers, with the energy availability factor – the proportion of the plant able to dispatch power – continuing downward at 53%.
Since 1 April, unplanned breakdowns have averaged between 16 000MW to 17 000MW, according to Eskom head of generation Bheki Nxumalo. This makes Stage 7 and Stage 8 more likely than ever before this winter. It will be a difficult winter. We have 3 000MW less capacity than last winter with the loss of Kusile units 1 to 3 and one unit of Koeberg. The focus must be on the performance of the general fleet, but if unplanned outages reach 18 000MW, then the likelihood of Stage 8 is extremely high.
Makwana said the board of Eskom remained committed to meet the targets for a higher EAF that it set six months ago. This would entail a 65% EAF by the end of March 2024 and 70% by the end of March 2025.
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