While crypto traders responded positively, pushing bitcoin higher by more than 20% in the past eight days, they may want to be vigilant because some traditional market indicators hint at risk aversion ahead.
One of the lessons of the past three years is that digital assets do not remain disconnected from traditional finance for long, and a notable decline in stocks and risk assets often roils sentiment in the crypto market. To see where those stand, take a look at the Cboe Volatility Index , also known as Wall Street's"fear gauge," and the futures tied to it.
The spread between the most expensive VIX futures contract and the index itself has widened to levels that have historically marked major tops in the S&P 500 benchmark equity index, which is also a bellwether for risk assets worldwide, including cryptocurrencies. "We are seeing a really high spread now, which is a sign of a top for prices," Tom McClellan, a technical analyst and editor of The McClellan Market Report,The spread between the VIX futures contract with the highest price and the VIX index has reached extremes.
The above-60% reading, a result of the VIX falling a little too far below the futures contracts, suggests extreme optimism among stock traders, often observed at market tops. A similar reading was seen in early January 2022, just before stocks began descending from record highs.
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