The quality discount against Brent Crude was already. And it’s only going to get higher, much higher. Why is the subject of this article.
So why will Alberta’s product, and similarly Venezuela’s product, be first off the market? Well, Alberta has a compounded set of problems including a market that’s 94% in the US, the US becoming a net oil exporter today, and the US seeing declining global and domestic markets as electrification sweeps the planet. It’s going to be increasingly focused on locking up domestic demand with its own oil, of course, and only buying the cheapest oil from foreign sellers.
Hydrogen is used to remove sulfur , remove water and other impurities , and to separate the heaviest crude from lighter components . Because Alberta’s product is at the bad end of every scale, it requires a lot more hydrogen than other crude oil products. Of course, that doesn’t do a thing for emissions when the oil is used as intended and burnt, as the lion’s share of emissions are from that process, but it certainly reduces Canada’s emissions within its borders, as 80% of Canada’s oil leaves the country. I recently worked out that Canada’s fossil fuel industry is responsible by itself for roughly 2% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions, but Canada doesn’t count 80% of that as its problem.
Remember that the US$14 quality discount it’s already seeing is without any price on carbon and with unabated gray hydrogen. The gray hydrogen likely costs in the range of US$1-$2 per kilogram.shows US$1 exists in the US for unabated hydrogen, as an obvious example. We’ll go with US$1.50 as a median for unabated hydrogen.
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