With its latest 25 basis point interest rate increase now in the books, the Fed has raised the benchmark overnight interest rate by 525 basis points since March 2022 to a level last seen before the 2007 housing market crash in a fight to bring down inflation.
"Investors remain divided on whether this marks the last increase in the current tightening campaign," said Gurpreet Gill, global fixed income macro strategist at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "Given the uncertainty around when the Fed’s hiking cycle will conclude, we have limited exposure to US rates."
Kristy Akullian, a senior strategist with the firm’s iShares Investment Strategy team, said it was time to extend duration - or the sensitivity of an investment portfolio to interest rates - even though additional rate hikes remained possible. Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, is turning more defensive in his portfolios by focusing on high quality equities and core bonds in anticipation of a shallow recession he believes will hit in the next year.
"We have begun to layer in some long-term bonds in portfolios to hedge against an unexpected economic slowdown while locking in higher rates relative to history," he said. Long-term bonds tend to perform well during economic slowdowns because when central banks ease rates to stimulate demand existing fixed-rate securities are worth more.