The U.S. stock market’s big run-up in 2023 left the S&P 500 near a “tipping point” that set the index up for a choppier second half of the year, according to Ned Davis Research’s chief U.S. strategist Ed Clissold.
The S&P 500 gained 19.5% this year through July for its best seven months of a year since 1997. The rally put the popular stock-market benchmark near a tipping point in terms of momentum and mean reversion, Clissold said in an Aug. 2 note. Clissold said his findings provide “only a glimpse into the full story of how each of those years unfolded” after the S&P 500 rallied at least 15% through July, saying “blowoff tops, recessions, wars, Fed cycles, and other macro drivers determined whether the good times continued to roll.”
Read: ‘Rare’ rally in cyclical stocks largely over, Goldman warns, after ETF investors favored such areas of the market
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