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Stocks might not get trampled by central bank 'elephants.' We were wrong, says UBS CIO

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'We have greater confidence the U.S. will avoid a recession in the next 12 months,' says UBS chief investment officer for wealth management.

Stocks aren’t looking as shabby as UBS’s chief investment officer for wealth management once thought.

“In retrospect, the elephants did dance, and some victims were crushed,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in new client note. “It has also been a weak summer for major stock indexes. Yet overall, we overestimated the risks of central bank rate hikes for the global economy and were too pessimistic on stocks.”

August has been rough for equities. U.S. stocks were on pace for weekly losses of more than 2.2% on Friday, but the S&P 500 was off about 4.9% for the month to date, trading below 4,370, at last check, according to FactSet. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP was down 7.4% in August and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA was 3.1% lower.

Haefele said a forecast for a shakier economic backdrop led UBS to take advantage of higher yields and “collect income from bonds,” earlier this year, but he now sees room for a “higher profile” of stocks in portfolios over the next six to 12 months, particularly with a “softish” landing for the economy looking possible, given inflation receding and the expanding U.S. economy, despite the Federal Reserve’s fast-tracking its policy rate to a 22-year high.

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