First the bad: The decline that began in late July/early August will eventually take between 8% and 13% off the market averages, Martin says. The good news, he adds, is that the coming decline will not spell the end of the bull market and the start of a new bear market.
One such email from Martin arrived late in the day on Aug. 1. In contrast to prior emails in which he said the market’s advance was on solid ground, in this one he reported that the market’s “internals” were “deteriorating.” He concluded: “Although I do not expect a major decline to result from this, we should be prepared for a more severe intermediate pullback. A defensive posture is warranted under such conditions.
In a follow-up email, Martin said that, based on his work, this correction has further to go, in the 8% to 13% range. Yet because his analysis shows that the market’s internals have only modestly deteriorated, in contrast to the severe deterioration seen at bull-market tops, he adds that “I expect the advance to resume” once this correction runs its course.
After that rally ended, the bear market resumed in earnest and by early October 2022 the Nasdaq had more than erased that 16.5% gain. At that point, Martin forecasted a strong “reflex bounce,” though not a new bull market, in which the market averages would rise 10%-15% and “the technology-dominated indexes may well show gains in the 15-20% range.” The market’s low was on October 12.
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