Ahead of Powell’s address Friday at a Fed symposium in Wyoming, traders are going to look to a crucial earnings report Wednesday from Nvidia Corp. to set the tone. A blowout forecast for surging revenue in May from the chipmaker, now the fourth-largest component of the S&P 500 Index, helped ignite the artificial-intelligence rally that’s powered the benchmark’s roughly 14% advance this year.
“Investors are betting on a narrative that inflation is under control and the Fed can declare victory, but it has yet to become a reality — and that’s the biggest risk to the stock market,” said Stephanie Lang, chief investment officer at Homrich Berg. At the same time, “it’s going to be tough for this rally to continue unless Nvidia can translate the power of AI into earnings growth.”
As the selloff in US stocks gained momentum last week, with the S&P 500 posting its first three-week slide since February, so did the appetite for options contracts betting on more losses. The S&P 500 has dropped 4.8% in August, on pace for the worst month this year, and the Cboe VIX Index — a measure of expected swings in the benchmark — is near the highest since May. While the weakness in stocks is hardly fostering panic, derivatives traders are definitely taking notice.
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