The market's view has come into sharp focus in recent days amid a dramatic run-up in 10-year Treasury yields that hit 16-year highs.
"We have moved into a new era here," said Greg Whiteley, a portfolio manager at DoubleLine. "It's not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. It's going to be working to keep it down." In recent days, one component of yields -- a measure of the compensation investors demand to lend money for the longer term -- turned positive for the first time since June 2021, according to the
The higher rate outlook feeds back into the term premium, which had been kept low in part because the Fed became a massive buyer of bonds to stimulate the economy after it could no longer cut rates because they were already at zero. "The r-star over the long-term is probably higher than the Fed thinks it is," said John Velis, forex and macro strategist for the Americas at BNY Mellon. "The disinflationary impulse of the post-GFC period is over."
"The problem with the neutral rate is that you don't really know what it is until you pass it," said Leslie Falconio, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management.
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