Oil prices and inflation are the biggest risks.
On the hiring end, hiring should hold steady near 150,000-200,000 through the end of the year. Historically, December, January, and February tend to be solid hiring months for non-seasonal employment. In this scenario, wage inflation will persist in the 4% to 5% range.The inflation data does not align with a downtrend, at least not yet. The latest data suggests inflation is accelerating and may increase at the core level over the next 2 months.
While bad news for realtors, homeowners, and the home improvement market, it's great news for home builders. They are supported by historically low inventory and pent-up demand that has the industry on the verge of returning to growth.entered Q4, pulling back from recent highs, but a reversal is not expected. OPEC+ Russia has the oil market skewed toward higher prices and is keeping global production below demand.