Breitbart Business Digest: The Fed’s Fight Against Inflation Has Stalled

That’s a slowdown in the month-to-month figure compared with August but still uncomfortably high and worse than the 0.3 percent expected by Wall Street.compared with September of last year, exactly the same as the 12-month increase recorded in August. So, progress on headline inflation has stalled.

Comparing the one-month annualized number to the year-over-year figure is a useful exercise to determine how the current rate compares to what we’ve seen over the past year. This tells us that the September headline suggestswhile core is slightly—but only slightly—better., a data point many economists look to for evidence of an underlying trend in inflation. Unfortunately, the trend for headline inflation is flat—meaning inflation is not coming down.

The reason we point toward median and 16 percent trimmed mean inflation each month is that we think the trend in these figures is. They have been very good guides throughout this inflationary period.“Looking at the month-to-month changes in median CPI,. After registering 0.6 percent in February, median CPI clocked in at 0.4 percent for four months in a row. It fell in July down to a more moderate 0.2 percent but is likely to climb again when the August numbers are released later this week.

So, once again, the median is above the headline and the core, suggesting underlying inflation is quite strong and pointing to upside risk for inflation going forward., the highest it has been since February. This annualizes to 4.9 percent. So, 16 percent confirms the trend we’ve seen in median of upward underlying inflation pressure.“This morning’s report shows core inflation fell to its lowest level in two years.

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