The five-year US Treasury note yield has been lower than the three-month Treasury bill yield since March 7, a key recessionary signal if it stays this way for a full quarter.
The alarm in the bond market first rang in December, when the US three- and five-year Treasury yields"inverted" — a signal from credit markets than can often predict recessions. The latest curve inversion is what Harvey calls one of"four horsemen" predicting potential recession. Here they are:A quarter-long inversion in the three-month and five-year Treasury yield curves
. The study found that half of CFOs are planning on a recession at the end of 2019 or first part of 2020. 82% believe a recession will start by the end of 2020.The probability of a US recession just spiked the most in 30 years — UBS says 'even we are surprised by this'
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