Major Wall Street firms said a dismal year of dealmaking appears to have hit a trough, and now some companies are looking to merge, offering hope that investment banking revenues could pick up after a disappointing third quarter.
“This is going to happen in fits and starts a little bit, and so not all of those discussions are going to wind up in announcements, and not all the announcements will close,” Lazard CEO Peter Orszag told Reuters in an interview. There was “definitely ... some difference relative to six to nine months ago” and that for mergers & acquisitions the “market is bottoming out,” he said.
Pick noted that given the three- to six-month lag before deals close, the forward pipeline is the relevant indicator. Investment banking revenue will probably rise 5% to 10% next year for the largest banks, according to Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo. Still, activity will remain subdued relative to a blockbuster year in 2021.
In further evidence of deal flow, activist investors have pushed for M&A in nearly half of all campaigns tracked by Barclays this year, despite tougher financing markets. “We basically doubled the size of that team, and we’ll double it again,” CEO Brian Moynihan told analysts, without specifying staffing numbers.
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