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Market Sees 59% Odds Sam Bankman-Fried Is Found Guilty on All Charges

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Marc Hochstein is the executive editor of Consensus, CoinDesk's flagship event. He holds BTC above CoinDesk's disclosure threshold of $1K and de minimis amounts of other digital assets (details on profile page).

But there's an important caveat: only $4,512 has been cumulatively wagered, underscoring the current limitations of prediction markets, hamstrung by regulations when they operate in the U.S. and by the clunkiness of crypto when they don't.

On the question"SBF guilty of all charges?""yes" contracts were trading at 59 cents Thursday morning – which equates to traders seeing a 59% chance he will be – asafter a month of hearing testimony and lawyers' arguments in the case. Each contract pays out $1 if the prediction turns out to be true, and zilch if it is false."No" contracts were priced at 41 cents.

 

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