The persistence of professional economists underestimating inflation in the Biden era will someday make a great topic for economic historians to study.. Both the headline and core indexes were up by 0.3 percent for the month, or an annualized rate of 3.9 percent. The twelve-month increase came in at 2.7 percent for headline inflation and 2.8 percent for core.
Presenting the month-to-month figures in unrounded fractions of a percentage point can have the effect of downplaying the size of the difference. Does a few basis points really make a difference? To better appreciate the difference between the preliminary estimates and the revisions—and to see how hot inflation has been running—it helps. The one-month annualized core figure was 5.6 percent for January and is now 6.2 percent.
This is a discomfiting trend. It’s at least fair to wonder if the slight revisions seen in the February data will also be subject to further upward revisions and if the March data will follow the same pattern. The fact that the initial reports underestimated inflation and even the first revisions were inadequate raises the possibility thatSince inflation can be volatile month-to-month, it’s worth paying attention to the three-month annualized figures and the trend those reveal about inflation.
by assuming the Fed was on the brink of cutting rates six or seven times this year. The Fed signaled at the January meeting that it was not going to cut in the first quarter of the year because it needed more confidence that inflation was sustainably returning to two percent.
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