: The coming recession will be milder than past recessions — that’s the good news. The bad news is that the stock market is still likely to suffer a savage beatdown as an economic downturn sets in as early as 2020.
“Our work shows that when recessions hit, the severity of the downturn has a relatively minor impact on the magnitude of the associated bear market in stocks,” they said. A popular measure of stock values, the Shiller CAPE ratio, show that price-to-earnings, or P/Es stand at 31.05, compared with a historical average of 16.61. The measure was developed by Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller of Yale University and compares the price against inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years.
Although, the Fed has scaled back its crisis-era asset portfolio, it still stands at around $4 trillion and the central bank has said it plans on halting its unwind of that balance sheet as a part of a wait-and-see posture that it adopted back in January following the market’s late-2018 skid. Read: Guggenheim’s Minerd says despite yield-curve inversion, Fed won’t be able to resist urge to raise rates in 2019
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