in 2022 proved premature, with falling inflation, hopes of central bank rate cuts and the AI-powered rally in global equities leading to an impressive recovery just a year later.
The Goldman team has attempted something particularly ambitious: forecasting returns across equities, bonds, cash and real assets.“The outlook for the structural cycle has become more uncertain. Ongoing deglobalisation, decarbonisation and demographic trends could result in more inflation pressures, while technological innovations such as AI and GLP-1 could counter them and boost growth.
The second scenario is the Goldilocks outcome with a boost from AI, which lifts GDP and rates a little higher, but boosts earnings to 9.6 per cent. Goldman’s other big conclusion is that in most structural macro scenarios, the optimal allocation to equities is likely to be below 60 per cent, which reflects the fact that equity valuations are starting from a high point with plenty of growth already priced in.
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