The stock market’s progress to a fresh record hinges on a key gauge of economic growth

If the stock market needs a fresh catalyst after a lumbering ascent to near records, there’s one in the offing.

“The soft-landing scenario is playing out for the global economy and it is difficult at this point to see any risks on the horizon that are big enough to drag the U.S. into a recession,” wrote Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, in a Thursday research note. “US equities clearly like this outlook, as long as it comes with enough economic growth to deliver earnings growth in 2H 2019,” Colas wrote in a Friday research note, referring to the market’s belief that there won’t be a rate hike by the Fed over the several months.If Friday unveils a first-quarter GDP number that would put the U.S. on track to hit 2% to 2.5% growth this year, it could briefly silence near-term recessionary prognostications. Analysts polled by MarketWatch expect a more muted 1.

Room to rally? But it isn’t assured that a healthy first-quarter GDP can spark another run for records for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.42% S&P 500 index SPX, +0.16% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.02% which all stand within shouting distance of all-time closing highs.LPL analysts said the stock market has already priced in 2 to 2.5% growth for the full year of 2019.

Since then, the 10-year yield has bounced back to finish at 2.56%, as of Thursday , more than 20 basis points from its March lows, and steepening the curve along the 3-month/10-year spread. Falling bond yields can sometimes reflect concerns about flagging economic expansion and diminished fears of higher inflation, while rising bond yields reflect expectations of an uptick in economic activity.

Corporate earnings Check out: Here are signs the ‘worst is behind us’ when it comes to global economic gloom

Nope. The fed, trump and team will pump. And say the china deal is ‘progressing’

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