This week the blog is starting off with what I call the “spot curve” of the forward 4-quarter estimates of theIn other words, if we look at the “forward 4-quarter estimate” today, and then add one future quarter as one quarter falls off, what does the rate of change tell us, if anything?
Don’t assume this yet with the 2025 data though, but the numbers do at some point start to discount actual 2025 EPS and revenue for the S&P 500. Readers might think we are still too far out from 2025 for the estimates to be realistic, but readers would be surprised. The PE ratio on the forward estimate is 21.55x, versus 21.6x as of 3/31/24. What’s interesting about tracking the PE versus the forward estimate is that the first 90 days of the year and the nice rally in the S&P 500 in Q1 ’24, was all “PE expansion” but the 2nd quarter rally to new all-time highs after the April correction, has been all EPS growth. The S&P 500 PE is almost identical to where it was on March 31 ’24.
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