EVs face a lot of headwinds, including unreliable public charging and price. But a new report posits that sales will continue to grow — they’re already way up in some parts of the world. The electric vehicle market is steeped in uncertainty. EV sales growth has slowed; automakers are pulling back on EV production; politics around the subject is growing nasty, as the very idea of driving an EV has entered the culture wars.
A global survey conducted by consulting firm McKinsey included this shocker: 29% of EV owners told McKinsey they plan to replace the EV they bought with a gasoline or diesel car, a figure that jumps to 38% for U.S. EV owners. Eleven other states are following California’s lead, although Virginia’s Republican governor plans to drop out by year’s end.
Today, “China, India and France are still showing signs of healthy growth, but the latest data from Germany, Italy and the U.S. is more concerning,” BloombergNEF said. Global EV sales “are set to rise from 13.9 million in 2023 to over 30 million in 2027,” despite the lagging U.S. In the U.S. it’s a different story, where consumer interest in an EV purchase declined to 18% this year, according to AAA’s survey, down from 23% in 2023. And nearly two-thirds reported they were unlikely to buy an EV next time they buy a car.
Tesla’s sales decline, overcapacity and price cuts, plus the antics of Chief Executive Elon Musk, bode ill for the U.S. market as a whole. “Tesla is a leading indicator of what’s happening in the EV market,” Brannon said. “When we see softening at Tesla, we see softening across the board.”
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