WASHINGTON — The U.S. job market isn’t sizzling hot anymore. Companies aren’t hiring the way they were a year or two ago. But they aren’t slashing jobs either, and American workers continue to enjoy an unusual degree of job security.
“We’re actually in a good place now,’’ Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters Wednesday after the central bank’s latest meeting. The June jobs report, though stronger than expected, came with blemishes. For one thing, Labor Department revisions reduced April and May payrolls by a combined 111,000. That meant that monthly job growth averaged just 177,000 from April through June, lowest three-month average since January 2021.
Still, Sahm, now chief economist at the investment firm New Century Advisors, said that this time “a recession is not imminent’’ even if unemployment crosses the Sahm Rule threshold. Indeed, new Labor Department data this week showed that layoffs dropped in June to the lowest level in more than a year and a half.
“Once you have a certain momentum going to the downside, it often can get going,’’ Sahm said. The Sahm rule, she says, is “not working like it usually does, but it shouldn’t be ignored.’’