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“Even a benign macro markets outlook and Fed cuts are likely to increasingly take a back-seat to the US elections – which may potentially re-set the policy landscape in a way that is unfriendly to EM local currency assets,” he said. “With the Fed soon to commence its easing cycle, the stars are aligning for EM rates and FX to perform better,” said George Efstathopoulos, a portfolio manager at Fidelity in Singapore. “EM local election-risk premia has subsided now that index heavyweights such as Indonesia, India, Mexico have already gone through their election cycles.”
“Emerging markets could face challenges if US protectionism increases,” Gama’s De Mello said. “This could lead to a depreciation of EM currencies and force EM central banks to maintain policy rates at higher levels than they would otherwise.
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