“This time it’s different,” says Matthias Schmidt, a Berlin-based automotive analyst. Chief executive Oliver Blume is “VW through and through”, and his actions likely reflect the desires of the controlling Porsche and Piëch dynasties, Schmidt said. The course is set for a historic clash over the future for Germany’s largest carmaker.
That may be why VW’s owners have decided that now is the time to cut factories. Schmidt says that the company has long been a “bloated monster” in its home operations. Osnabrück, in Lower Saxony, and Dresden, in Saxony, have previously been earmarked by analysts as potential targets for closure. Osnabrück – nominally capable of 100,000 cars a year, but running far below that in recent years, according to Marklines – produces the T-Roc Cabriolet, and the Golf, which is on its way out. Dresden has a smaller capacity of 20,000, but its 2023 output of 6,000 also suggests it is running inefficiently.
Factory closure decisions are always politically fraught, but VW will have to pay closer attention than most. The state of Lower Saxony is Volkswagen’s second-largest shareholder, with 20% of voting rights. Stephan Weil, the state’s premier, said on Monday that plant closures should “simply not come into question”.
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