Recent market volatility has raised questions about the staying power of the rally for global assets that began in late-2023. A clear warning sign has yet to emerge, based on a set of ETF pairs that measure the broad trend via prices through Sep 18. But in some corners, there are hints that the tide may be turning.
Although this metric doesn’t offer much traction for short-term trading, its value as a first approximation of the medium-term trend suggests that it’s still premature to confidently assume that the risk-on bias has run its course. Similar signaling has been consistent in these updates in recent months – on
One data point should be viewed cautiously, but this weakness should be monitored closely as a possible early warning for risk appetite — a view that will strengthen if the downside bias continues and deepens in the days and weeks ahead. One takeaway from the trend data above: there’s a stronger case for adopting a more defensive posture, if only on the margins. This is especially true for investors with a low-risk tolerance and/or a relatively short time horizon for de-accumlation plans. For longer-term investors, it’s reasonable to wait and assume that recent market volatility may be noise.
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