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Fed's Pivot to Rate Cuts Fuels Stock Market Rally and Record Highs

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The Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, driven by a shift towards supporting employment over inflation control, has sent stock prices soaring to new record highs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's August speech signaled this pivot, and the FOMC's decision reflects an increasing confidence in the labor market despite persistent inflationary pressures.

We've focused on three scenarios since the start of the decade: a 1920s-style Roaring 2020s, a reprise of the 1990s stock market meltup, and a rerun of

"The FOMC had its first dissent since 2022 at this meeting. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman voted for a smaller 25bps rate cut. But the Fed's dot plot, updated in its new SEP , suggests dissent was much greater. Two participants favor not reducing rates again this year, and another seven see just one 25bps cut later this year.""We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.

We've been using a forward P/E of 21.0 to get our year-end S&P 500 targets of 5800, 6300, and 6800 for 2024, 2025, and 2026.

 

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