Investors will be laser-focused on inflation and the kickoff of third-quarter earnings in the week ahead.The CPI swaps indicate that September inflation could exceed expectations. They are pricing in a 0.2% month-over-month increase for headlineThe real risk is shelter inflation, which could surge based on trends in Shiller Home Prices and a potential 12-month lag in the CPI Shelter Component.Last week’s unemployment report was shocking.
We spent three months working under assumptions based on the data, only for everything to unravel in seconds.The data is inconsistent because the average workweek fell to 34.2 hours, a level not seen since the 2008 and 2020 recessions. It hit 34.2 hours three times in 2024. A drop below this level would raise concerns.We saw the Index of Aggregate Weekly Payroll growth slow to just 4.9% year-over-year, near the lower end for this business cycle.
Nominal GDP growth in 2Q was 5.6%, and the Atlanta Fed’s model estimates the same for this quarter. If payroll growth is rising while GDP remains steady, this indicates higher labor costs and reduced productivity, potentially fueling inflation.Historically, this has impacted Apple’s stock price due to the Swiss National Bank’s significant $10 billion stake in Apple (NASDAQ:remains in a secondary rising wedge pattern, and despite Friday’s unusual price action, this structure remains intact.
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