The gold market has recently entered a phase of consolidation, exhibiting a slight downward bias. This comes after an impressive rally that saw gold futures surge by approximately $300 since late July, climbing from just under $2400 per ounce to record-breaking highs. The absence of a significant correction during this period underscores the prevailing bullish sentiment in the gold market.
Despite the Federal Reserve's initial reluctance to implement rate cuts, the bullish market sentiment continued to support gold prices, resulting in sustained gains without significant corrections. The Fed finally began its recalibration on September 18, implementing a substantial 50-basis point rate cut. This move triggered a final surge in gold prices, with December gold climbing from $2585 to an all-time record high of $2708 on September 26.
As of 6 PM EDT, gold futures for the most active December contract were fixed at $2661.90, reflecting a daily decline of $11.30. This consolidation phase comes amid shifting expectations for future Fed actions. Recent statements by Fed Chairman Powell have significantly reduced the likelihood of another substantial rate cut at the November meeting.
Gold’s historical rally has for the most part recently been devoid of any meaningful or substantial price correction. All things being equal, gold is due for a correction. This could change if Israel retaliates against Iran for its attack last Tuesday. The probability that Israel will retaliate is more probable due to the fact that the US President Joe Biden said last Wednesday that Jerusalem has a right to respond but that it should do so “proportionally.
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