In this edition a Scotiabank strategist is definitively not bullish on the loonie, Citi says take profit on “Trump trades”, and an academic judges 20th century thinkers as risers or fallers.The Canadian dollar is down roughly five per cent against the greenback so far this year and Scotiabank strategists think the down trend has just begun. Strategist Hugo Ste-Marie sees four reasons for further weakness in the loonie.
consumer. The Bank of Canada will therefore cut deeper and sooner, pushing domestic bond yields even lower relative to Treasuries. Reason number four is that forward-looking economic growth forecasts keep getting revised lower. Consensus forecasts for 2025 are only down 20 basis points to 1.8 per cent but recent data points like retail sales suggest further downward revisions. Slower growth expectations imply less foreign investment, more rate cuts and lower bond yields.
Citi strategist Dirk Willer noted that hedge funds are strapping on U.S. dollar long positions at historically high rates and he believes this reflects belief in a Trump victory. Mr. Willer points to significant duration shortening in fixed income portfolios as evidence of the same trend.- and the strategist recommends taking profits on derivative trades benefiting from rising inflation expectations, and a bet on a strengthening of the greenback versus the euro.
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