European markets are lagging behind Wall Street by a record margin after Donald Trump’s election victory pushed the region’s stocks lower and sent the euro tumbling.European markets are lagging behind Wall Street by a record margin after Donald Trump’s election victory pushed the region’s stocks lower and sent the euro tumbling.
Meanwhile, the euro has slumped to its lowest level in a year at around $1.05 – its sharpest sell-off since the 2022 energy crisis – as investors bet on a growth hit to Europe that will encourage the European Central Bank to cut interest rates more aggressively, just as US growth strengthens.
Futures markets have priced in around three quarter-point cuts by the US Federal Reserve by the end of next year, according to levels implied in swaps markets. This contrasts with six cuts expected from the ECB in the same period. The Republican president-elect has threatened 60 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports to the US, and blanket 10 per cent to 20 per cent duties on all other trading partners in a move that analysts say will leave European manufacturers facing a double hit of higher export costs and the prospect that China floods the region with cheap imports.
The UK has also been caught up: analysts at Goldman Sachs said the country would feel a “moderate” impact from tariffs but still lowered its 2025 growth forecast from 1.6 per cent to 1.4 per cent. The manufacturing sector, the key engine of growth for countries including Germany, was already struggling. Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, cited lagging demand from China and that these economies’ “cheap energy model has been broken” in the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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