It will be a high stakes Black Friday. These are the retail stocks you want to own this holiday season

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Frenzied shopping on Black Friday will prove make-or-break for stores, and dividing lines will distinguish between the winners and losers in the retail sector.

Every four years, the holiday season is a little more challenging for retailers as consumers get distracted by the selection of the next U.S. president. This election cycle was no different, but the disruption is lingering. Making matters worse, shoppers were already under a time crunch due to this year's late Thanksgiving. Put them together with some unusually warm weather, and retailers face an especially tough slog this year.

"These early November declines marked the weakest general merchandise sales performance in the last 52 weeks and spanned almost the full list of industries tracked, " Circana said in an email. Retailers are up against a number of headwinds. Temperatures have been unseasonably warm in much of the country, which means fewer shoppers are in the market for cozy sweaters, winter jackets and boots. And they also feel the holiday spirit less if temperatures are above their seasonal norms.

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