Copper Market Outlook Clouded by 2025 Uncertainty

Uncertainty over the Chinese economy and the looming inauguration of US president-elect Donald Trump has created a somewhat murky 2025 outlook for copper. Copper bulls were out in force at the start of the year as the emergence of artificial intelligence and the energy required for data centres spurred excitement over additional demand. The excitement saw the copper price soar from just above US$8,000/tonne to a high of close to $11,000/t.

'It's been a very interesting year for copper, with record nominal highs earlier in the year fuelled by financial markets looking for ways to play data centre growth, and even after a fundamentally needed price correction, 2024 will still mark the second highest average nominal copper price on record,' BMO Capital Markets analyst Colin Hamilton said.'This comes despite the largest refined surplus in over a decade amid decelerating demand growth.'Copper has recently been trading at around $9000/t, with Hamilton noting the recent underperformance against other base metals since the US election was due to a stronger US dollar and concerns over tariffs. 'Compared to the relative (and unsustainable) euphoria of Q2 2024, this is somewhat of a return to normality,' he said. 'However, during a couple of periods this year we have seen Chinese buyers step back into the market for additional copper units at just above US$8800/t (US$4/lb), suggesting that unless we see significant currency moves this can be considered a soft floor on the price at the present time.'BMO is cautious on copper heading into 2025. Impact of tariffs unclear The impact of Trump's proposed tariffs remains unclear, though BMO has already been building bilateral US-China trade friction into its copper demand assumptions. 'What we are now having to consider is potential for a multilateral trade war with other countries dragged in,' Hamilton said

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