The end of the year is a time for reflection. Each year, I look back at my resolutions for mining companies. Notably, I tend to be overly optimistic about sovereign risk and 2024 was no different. While some jurisdictions like Mozambique and Zambia have shown prudence in dealing with foreign partners, my optimism was misplaced.
The emergence of Coup Belt States defying the Western-led international order and aligning with Russian and Chinese interests increases risks for foreign mining companies in Africa. Meanwhile, the resource nationalist project in Mexico continues under Sheinbaum. Hopefully, my misplaced optimism for 2024 will yield some lessons for 2025. My New Year's Resolutions for Mining Companies, 2025 Edition: When African States demand meetings to discuss alleged tax payments or penalties, send local executives and lawyers, not company executives. There's an unwritten rule that States shouldn't imprison lawyers. If you haven't met statutory conditions for maintaining your permit, no lawyer can obtain damages from a State that lawfully terminated your concession. Whether it's Mexico or Burkina Faso, sovereigns continue to believe their national companies are better equipped to mine resources than foreign companies who spent years developing assets
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