Market Outlook for 2025: Risks and Opportunities

Featuring views and opinions written by market professionals, not staff journalists. Despite ongoing geopolitical turbulence, markets are closing the year on an upbeat note. For the first time since the 1990s, Against this backdrop, it might seem that 2025 will bring a cooling period; after all, markets cannot grow indefinitely, especially when driven by a handful of stocks, even if they are tech giants. Still, most expect indices to continue climbing.

While double-digit growth isn’t in the cards for baseline forecasts, it’s notable that no one amongst the top banks is predicting a market downturn. Of course, that doesn’t mean 2025 will be entirely smooth sailing. Unexpected events can always disrupt confidence and cause markets to deteriorate sharply. Some speculate that the current administration keeps the markets afloat until the next president takes office. But since this theory leans more toward conspiracy than fact, let's set it aside. Focusing instead on tangible risks that could have a real impact, the first to stand out, and perhaps the most immediate, is the looming threat of another default on U.S. government debt., the US debt ceiling will be reached in mid-January. If Congress does not reach an agreement by then, the government could run out of funds, approaching the first default in its history. In 2011, delays in raising the debt ceiling led credit rating agency S&P to downgrade U.S. debt on August 5. Just days later, on August 8, the S&P 500 plunged nearly 7%, an event now remembered as Black Monday.for longer. Under these conditions, refinancing debt incurred during the pandemic could make it more difficult for companies to meet their obligations. This could lead to an increased risk of defaults, which would negatively impact markets. Although it has not yet been a major problem, as some feared, it could eventually trigger a domino effect. Another aspect to consider is the public debt bubbl

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