The closely watched Santa Claus Rally period officially wraps up today. This historically strong seven-day stretch for stocks was first discovered by Yale Hirsch back in 1972. Hirsch, creator of the, officially defined the period as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the new year.
When investors are on the “nice” list and Santa delivers a positive rally, the S&P 500 has generated an average January return of 1.4% and an average following-year return of 10.4%. This compares to the respective average January and following returns of -0.2% and 6.1% when investors are on the “naughty” list and receive a negative Santa Claus Rally return.Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All indexes are unmanaged and can’t be invested in directly.
However, we don’t believe they should take all the blame for the recent dip. Rates were rising well before the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on December 18, while market breadth and momentum indicators were deviating from price action. Technical damage has been most acute on a short-term basis. The S&P 500 has dipped below its 50-day moving average but remains above its longer-term uptrend.
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