The S&P500 closed 2024 up 23.3% .This was accompanied by lower average volatility + higher earnings., it was a year that featured all the hallmarks of a raging bull market. But heading into 2025, expectations are running hot, and the hurdles for a third calendar year in a row of 20%+ gains are high. As I discuss, it’s possible that the bull market keeps keeping on higher for longer, but we need to think about probabilities vs possibilities.
Meanwhile, non-tech earnings have gone sideways for 3 years. It leaves me wondering which of these two lines have the most potential to surprise — the bear case would be TMT catch-down, the bullish rotation case would be non-tech catch-up.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors.
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