Share to twitterQINGDAO, CHINA - NOVEMBER 08: Workers wait to unload shipping containers at Qingdao Port on November 8, 2018 in Qingdao, Shandong Province of China. China's import and export of trade in goods reached 25.05 trillion yuan 500 having reported, second quarter earnings per share have beaten estimates by over 5%. That’s materially better than the dip that FactSet, a service that aggregates analysts’ views, initially forecasted.
Investors have to find safe havens. Financial and energy companies have a domestic focus and a lower sensitivity to rising labor costs. Both sectors could provide some stability if protectionism intensifies or labor markets overheat. The trend isn’t necessarily new – it’s just accelerating. Over the last several years, rising labor costs in China have motivated electronics manufacturers to explore other locations. As the U.S. trade aggression intensifies, technology companies are hastening their push to find less controversial partners.
However, the rush to exit won’t happen overnight. Replicating the reliability, quality and productivity of China, who soars above most rivals, will take time.Add to this that full employment has gradually been stoking wages. Wage improvements have been running around 3% a year – a post-crisis high. While wage pressure so far has been offset by productivity gains, it may intensify and begin to squeeze corporate profits. Surveys indicate this is the key worry of many CFOs.
How optimistic can anybody be about stock prices going up from here?
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