Better late than never. That would be an appropriate response to the news that the JSE will from next week make publicly available a different set of data measuring foreign activity in SA’s bond market.
The rand has been skittish in 2021. But it is still 1.7% stronger against the dollar for the year to date. And though bonds have lost ground, the 0.6 percentage point increase in the yield — which moves inversely to the price — is not a sign of a market in panic. It definitely does not suggest a stampede of investors rushing out at the same time.
The anomaly arose because the JSE data that was widely used by analysts did not account for the fact that some of the bond trades did not settle. In those cases, the trades were not booked as having been cancelled. Having two sets of data, one freely available and another not, was problematic for a number of reasons.
And could it have led to different choices for the country’s policymakers, who always have an eye on what foreign investors and ratings companies think? Based on their public comments, there is no clear evidence that the central bank knew any differently from analysts who were citing data showing outflows from SA in the wake of the Covid-19 shock.
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