Inflation signals from the United States, Australia and Japan should be in focus in the coming days following a deluge of central bank meetings that included a historic Bank of Japan rate hike.
The Fed just upgraded its view on inflation - projecting that the PCE index excluding food and energy would rise at a 2.6% annual rate by year-end, compared with 2.4% in its December projections. It also lifted 2024 economic growth estimates. Across Asia, any further easing of inflation in Singapore and neighboring Malaysia is unlikely to significantly sway policymakers, who are expected to keep monetary policy unchanged for some time.
The question is the U.S. Fed. It is sticking with a plan for three rate cuts for now, but strong data and sticky inflation could derail that. Headline inflation has slowed to near the Riksbank’s 2% target and growth has ground to a halt as households and businesses struggle with rates at over 15 year-highs.
The market wants some equity market success to unlock a vital cog in the financial system and spur more dealmaking.