S&P 500 Earnings Remain Strong: Upside Surprise Higher than Last Few Quarters

The forward 4-quarter estimate was revised higher again to $253.25 from last weeks $252.55.The S&P 500 earnings yield was 4.94% versus last week’s 4.95%.With 397 S&P 500 companies having reported, the “upside surprise” this quarter for S&P 500 EPS is +8.4% bigger than the three previous quarters, which were quite strong in the mid to high-single-digits.), since they reported Thursday night after the closing bell. Any revisions will likely show up early next week in the LSEG numbers.

Just taking the straight math of trailing 12-month EPS of $225.64 and then divide it into the “forward 4-quarter estimate” the difference is $25. S&P 500 earnings are decent, and it’s more than just the Mag 7: almost every sector of the S&P 500 except industrials and health care are showing higher expected growth rates for ’24 than in early Jan 24.Despite good Q1 ’24 earnings reports the major tech / discretionary and / or communication services companies have yet to take out recent all-time highs. Microsoft is still short of the 2021 ATH’s near $188 – $189. Until today, Bonds just haven’t helped the equity market much.

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