BUSINESS MAVERICK: Emerging risks for emerging economies

We now know that this pessimism was overdone. Manufacturing activity

Consequently, the central government was able to raise the threshold below which no income tax is paid and to add a tax deduction for parental elder care. It had room to cut taxes for small businesses. It can cut the value-added tax and spend upward of 1.5% of GDP on railways, roads, and other projects, asTo be sure, China’s corporate debt load is heavy. Total social financing is still expected to grow by 10% this year, faster than nominal GDP.

But Trump’s tariff talk is consistently worse than his bite. When other countries refuse to roll over and accept his demands, he has a history of accepting limited concessions and declaring victory, as with the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. There is every sign now that a similar cosmetic agreement is in the offing with China.

As a result, Trump’s tariff threats will continue to roil global markets and international relations. But they will not culminate in a full-blown tariff war and complete collapse of the multilateral system.

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